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  • Massive CPI Rally Cut in Half After Fed Announcement June 12, 2024
    Massive CPI Rally Cut in Half After Fed Announcement As discussed in the AM commentary, bonds rallied sharply after this morning's CPI data (unrounded core monthly inflation at .163% versus a 0.3% forecast).  Those gains held up uneventfully until the Fed festivities began.  The most significant item on the Fed agenda was the dot plot […]
  • Mortgage Rates Drop Sharply After Inflation Data (But Bounce a Bit After The Fed Announcement) June 12, 2024
    It was an incredibly high consequence day for the bond market and, thus, mortgage rates due to the confluence of two extremely important events. The first event was the monthly release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is one of the two economic reports with the far more power to influence interest rates than […]
  • Old vs New Fed Statement With Changes Highlighted June 12, 2024
    Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Job gains have remained strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated. In recent months, there has been a lack of modest further progress toward the Committee’s 2 percent inflation objective. […]
  • Processing, Correspondent, Valuation Tools; CPI! The CFPB Proposes What? Figure Streamlining HELOCs and More June 12, 2024
    Florida became a state in 1845. Sixteen years later, kites were used in the American Civil War to deliver letters, news, and newspapers. Now we have… the internet. Here in Sarasota, at the MBA Florida Conference, yesterday’s CFPB proposal turned heads. A “rule” would remove medical bills from most credit reports, “increase privacy protections, help […]
  • Super Strong Start After "Perfect" CPI Number June 12, 2024
    There are so many line items in the CPI data that it would be hard to imagine a truly perfect report.  In today's case, one could still take exception to the persistent elevation of "shelter" component (still 0.4 vs 0.4 last month), or to the fact that shelter is mysteriously lagging more timely metrics, as […]
  • Mortgage Application Volume Bouncing Back as Rates Fall June 12, 2024
    Mortgage application activity recovered nicely last week from a downturn during the previous holiday-shortened week, helped by a temporary drop in interest rates. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said its Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage application volume, increased 15.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis and was 26.0 percent higher on an unadjusted […]
  • Treasury Auction Helps Bonds Hold The Range June 11, 2024
    Treasury Auction Helps Bonds Hold The Range If yesterday was a placeholder ahead of bigger ticket events, and if those bigger ticket events arrive on Wednesday, then Tuesday couldn't possibly be anything other than a placeholder as well.  That said, it was a more interesting placeholder with some friendly volatility delivered by a strong showing […]
  • Mortgage Rates Barely Budge For 3rd Straight Day, But That Should Change Tomorrow June 11, 2024
    Today's mortgage rates were fairly close to yesterday's at the average lender for the 3rd business day in a row.  Friday was the last day with any substantial movement when rates spiked following the upbeat jobs report.  Since then, the average lender has only moved by 0.01% on each of the past 2 days. The […]
  • Best-Ex, Verification, Servicing Tools; STRATMOR and Customer Experience; Re-Branding, Ownership, Alliances Continue June 11, 2024
    I head to Sarasota, Florida this morning, not to look for Florida Man, but for the MBA Florida Conference. A big topic will be homeowner’s insurance. What do Allstate, Liberty Mutual, State Farm, USAA, and Travelers have in common? They were singled out for being good insurance companies in the state. (Any insurance company is […]
  • Considering The French Connection as We Wait For Real Market Movers June 11, 2024
    Not every day is destined to be significant (or even interesting) for the bond market.  Depending on the outcome of today's only relevant calendar event--this afternoon's 10yr Treasury auction--today may be just such a 'placeholder.'  But what it lacks in terms of excitement, it makes up for in terms of being inoffensive from a directional […]