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  • Super Duper Flat After Overnight Losses July 19, 2024
    Super Duper Flat After Overnight Losses In a vacuum limited to this week, Friday ended up being the only interesting day because it was the only outlier in terms of bond market price action.  On the previous 4 days, the highest MBS price was within a 0.09 range and the lowest price was within a […]
  • Mortgage Rates Jump to Highest Levels of The Week July 19, 2024
    While there was never much of a chance of mortgage rates moving above the levels seen at the beginning of last week, they were easily able to nab the dubious distinction of hitting this week's highest levels today. This is the least surprising thing imaginable after looking at this week's chart of mortgage-backed securities prices. […]
  • VOE, Home Equity, MERS Audit Products, Builder Applications July 19, 2024
    I get asked if I think our industry puts too much emphasis on what the Federal Reserve is doing, and its being able to control inflation. In a word, my answer is yes. The Fed has a hand in inflation, but it isn’t the whole story. A President cuts off immigrants, so labor costs for […]
  • Lower Volume And Corporate Bond Issuance Pushing Yields Higher July 19, 2024
    This week's bond rally hit a wall at the 3pm close on Wednesday.  There's been gradual upward pressure since then with today's overnight session seeing some of the fastest selling.  The counterpoint is that the selling is only fast relative to the recent range.  It's very mild in the bigger picture with 10yr yields only […]
  • Morning Volatility, Afternoon Drift July 18, 2024
    Morning Volatility, Afternoon Drift Bonds began the day in modestly weaker territory before undergoing a bit of volatility after the morning economic data.  The two reports in question were Jobless Claims, which voted in favor of lower yields, and the Philly Fed Index, which made the opposite case. Bonds wend both ways before the bulls […]
  • Mortgage Rates Didn't Actually Move Sharply Lower Today July 18, 2024
    Thursday's mark the release of Freddie Mac's weekly mortgage rate survey.  It's the longest running and most widely cited measure of mortgage rates, but it's not always the most accurate when it comes to tracking day to day changes. In today's case, the survey showed a sharp drop from 6.89 to 6.77.  In actuality, the […]
  • Jobless Claims Helping Bonds Push Back Against Overnight Weakness July 18, 2024
    Today's Jobless Claims report is for the week ending July 13th.  This is important because the establishment survey for the big jobs report (nonfarm payrolls) is conducted on the week that includes the 12th of the month.  In other words, if claims were elevated last week, the implications would more readily transfer to NFP.  Claims […]
  • Hedging, HELOC, Broker, Cybersecurity, DPA, Warehouse Products, Trigger Lead Legislation July 18, 2024
    It’s not just Americans who can’t afford U.S. homes. International purchases of U.S. homes over the past year declined 36 percent to 54,300 properties ($42 billion), hitting a record low as foreign buyers balked at the dollar’s strength and a lack of available properties with owners continuing to cling to pandemic-era cheap mortgages. If those […]
  • More Data Defiance. Maybe It's All About Claims? July 17, 2024
    More Data Defiance. Maybe It's All About Claims? Bonds have been trending gently stronger after last week's CPI numbers, which is notable considering the headwinds presented by Tuesday's Retail Sales.  Wednesday's data didn't suggest a recovery from overnight weakness, but we got one nonetheless--perhaps with some help from Fed speakers adding to the sense of […]
  • Mortgage Rates Holding Near 5 Month Lows July 17, 2024
    Despite an active calendar of events that had the potential to cause volatility, average mortgage rates managed to remain unchanged in the morning and to move slightly lower in the afternoon.  Last Thursday's inflation data helped 30yr fixed rates drop to 5 month lows and there hasn't been much movement since then. Technically, today's rates […]